What is QuBeR?

QuBeR, short for Uber Quarterback Rating, is a contemporary measure of the quality of Quarterback play in the NFL. It requires input of 11 accessible statistics to output 4 Principal Frequencies that when combined create QuBeR. The inputs include Passing, Rushing, and Sack data which generate the outputs of Positive Attempt Frequency (PAF), Yards Frequency (YDF), Touchdown Frequency (TDF), and Turnover Frequency (TOF), each of which ranges from 0 to 25. Combine those and you get a QuBeR between 0 and 100 where a rating of 50 represents average Quarterback play. Want to calculate your own QuBeR? Head HERE for an online calculator.

Key Decisions

There were a few key decisions made in designing QuBeR, the most controversial of which is the inclusion of Sacks data in the formula. Wondering why Sacks have been included? The answer is simple. Time and time again sacks have been proven to be highly correlated with a Quarterback's inability to realease the ball in a timely manner and/or a lack of mobility. For that reason it would be irresponsible to not include Sacks, and the negative yards associated with them, in this formula.
 
The second key decision was the inclusion of Fumbles Lost instead of Total Fumbles. While there is some merit to the argument to include Total Fumbles, QuBeR treats it as an equivalent to "Interception Worthy Throws". The objectivity of those two statistics provides for multiple interpretations of each event, something QuBeR aims to avoid in the name of consistency. For that reason, QuBeR has determined that only Fumbles Lost should be counted as a negative in this equation.
 
The final key decision made was the weighting of the 4 Principal Frequencies, each of which received a 1.00 weighting EXCEPT for TOF which received a weighting of 1.25. Turnovers continue to be the most direct contributor to success and failure in the NFL. For that reason, it was deemed unwise to apply the same weighting to TOF as the other 3 Principal Frequencies. It's worth mentioning that a similar decision was made when the original Passer Rating formula as designed in the 1970s.

Calculating QuBeR

QuBeR's formula is built by analyzing the 5 seasons prior to the season in question. Raw data from the top 32 Quarterbacks (160 Total), by Passing Attempts, in each of those seasons is collected to determine the average per play values of multiple data points. This required defining Total Plays, a statistic used in each of the 4 Principal Frequencies. Total Plays equates to Passing Attempts + Rushing Attempts + Sacks and is the foundation which QuBeR is built from.
 
QuBeR relies on a common Sigmoid Function best known as the Logistic Curve, an S-Curve which sees its greatest growth/decline at a defined midpoint. In the case of QuBeR that midpoint equates to the average per play value of the Frequency being calculated. Each of the 4 Principal Frequencies are then combined into a single value, QuBeR, which ranges from 0-100 with a value of 50.00 representing average Quarterback play. Between 1994-2020 the highest recorded single season QuBeR is , and lowest . An example Sigmoid Curve for QuBeR among Quarterbacks from 2011-2020 is as follows:
 
QuBeR Sigmoid
 
Note: Because QuBeR's formula relies on the 5 seasons prior to the season being analyzed, each season has a slighlty different formula applied than the one before or one after.

Calculating Positive Attempt Frequency

Positive Attempt Frequency, or PAF, is the number of Positive Plays divided by the number of Total Plays. Positive Plays is defined as the sum of Passing Completions + Rushing Attempts. The average Raw PAF between - was with the highest being and lowest being . To provide a properly weighted PAF the Raw PAF is then passed through its corresponding Logisitc Formula of; f(x) = 25/e((-x)*14.5), with an adjustment to 0 in the event of a Raw PAF of 0% and adjustment to 25 in the event of a Raw PAF of 100%. This Frequency fully embraces the criticism that not all rushing attempts are positive but chooses to interpret them as such in order to maintain QuBeR's status as an "accessible" formula.
 
QuBeR PAF Sigmoid

Calculating Yards Frequency

Yards Frequency, or YDF, is an overarching Yards per Attempt statistic which amounts to Total Yards divided by the number of Total Plays. Total Yards is defined as the sum of Passing Yards + Rushing Yards – Sack Yards. The average Raw YDF between - was with the highest being and lowest being . To provide a properly weighted YDF the Raw YDF is then passed through its corresponding Logisitc Formula of; f(x) = 25/e((-x)*0.95). Note that Receiving Yards have been ignored as an outlying statistic that more often than not occurs on gadget plays.
 
QuBeR YDF Sigmoid

Calculating Touchdown Frequency

Touchdown Frequency, or TDF, is the number of Total Touchdowns divided by the number of Total Plays. Total Touchdowns is defined as the sum of Passing Touchdowns + Rushing Touchdowns. The average Raw TDF between - was with the highest being and lowest being . To provide a properly weighted TDF the Raw TDF is then passed through its corresponding Logisitc Formula of; f(x) = 25/e((-x)*73), with an adjustment to 0 in the event of a Raw TDF of 0%. Note that Receiving Touchdowns have been ignored as an outlying statistic that more often than not occurs on gadget plays.
 
QuBeR TDF Sigmoid

Calculating Turnover Frequency

Turnover Frequency, or TOF, is the number of Total Turnovers divided by the number of Total Plays. Total Turnovers is defined as the sum of Interceptions + Fumbles Lost. The average Raw TOF between - was with the lowest being and highest being . To provide a properly weighted TOF the Raw TOF is then passed through its corresponding Logisitc Formula of; f(x) = 31.25/e((-x)*-53.6), with an adjustment to 25 in the event of a Raw TOF of 0%.
 
QuBeR TOF Sigmoid

Why not Passer Rating?

Coming soon...